sunda megathrust earthquakes

Meanwhile, following the failure of the 22 previously deployed buoys, BMKG still lacks a functional network of ocean buoys and deep-sea pressure sensors called DARTs (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis). Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra. The stochastic tsunami simulation can be conducted by generating multiple source models for a given earthquake scenario and by performing tsunami forward modeling iteratively. 6, 19–38. J. Sch. Indonesian islands are very close to earthquake sources like the Sunda Megathrust, the 5,500-kilometer-long subduction zone off Sumatra and Java that was the source of the cataclysmic 2004 earthquake and tsunami. (2008) considered the uncertainty of slip distribution by implementing the heterogeneous spatial distribution of slips based on a methodology proposed by Mai and Beroza (2002) and produced more than 100 scenarios to assess the tsunami hazards along the western coast of Sumatra. In addition, the magnitude of the earthquake was estimated to be in the range of Mw 8.5–8.7 (Natawidjaja et al., 2006). Bengkulu and Indrapura areas were greatly affected by the 1833 tsunamigenic event. A paleotsunami study based on a 1,000-year long record of tsunami deposits in North-West of Sumatra suggests that the occurrence interval of tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw 9.15) from the Sumatra-Andaman region is about 600 years (Monecke et al., 2008). Another historical earthquake event occurred in 1797 produced a destructive tsunami at Padang and nearby. For this purpose, two criteria for acceptance of the candidate slip model are implemented, i.e., the asperity area ratio of the candidate slip distribution is within the range of 0.2 and 0.3 and the simulated earthquake slip is more concentrated in the considered asperity region with the percentage range of 50–80%. (2006). (2015). The Sunda Megathrust remains the most hazardous fault in the Indonesian archipelago. The 1,350 m region covers the entire region of West Sumatra. 115, B12316. Solid. Some local community organizers have been vigilant about educating the populace and persuading local government officials to act on evacuation plans, but infrastructure and budgets to support such efforts are spotty. Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. source model. Sumatra, Indonesia (2004)—On December 26, 2004, slippage of the Sunda megathrust fault generated a moment magnitude 9.0–9.3 earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia . The investigations considering multiple earthquake scenarios by McCloskey et al. Figure 8. Tsunami wave propagation is then evaluated by solving non-linear shallow water equations with run-up (Goto et al., 1997). (A) Tsunami source zone. The effective dimension analysis is carried out to calculate the width, length, mean slip, and maximum slip, while the Box–Cox analysis is used to characterize the probability distribution of the slip values. (C) Mw 8.75 scenario without considering uncertainty. The tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang, a coastal city in western Sumatra where tsunamis are a major threat. doi:10.1023/B:JOSE.0000021438.79877.58, Goda, K., Mai, P. M., Yasuda, T., and Mori, N. (2014). doi:10.5194/nhess-11-3107-2011, Muhari, A., Imamura, F., Natawidjaja, D. H., Diposaptono, S., Latief, H., Post, J., et al. (2006) based on the measurements of the coral microatoll uplift confirmed that the uplift between 1 and 3 m occurred over a 170-km long stretch of the Sumatran outer arc ridge. The simulated tsunami wave profiles produced from Muhari et al. Result of the Oct 25, 2010 Mw 7.7 Southern Sumatra Earthquake. (D) Maximum tsunami wave height profile along the coastal line by incorporating uncertainty. Res. The earthquake was felt as far away as the Malay peninsula and the eastern part of Java. Twelve hours later, a subsequent fault rupture produced another major earthquake of Mw 7.9. This failure led to another 400 km rupture of the megathrust fault in the southern part of Simeulue Island (see Figure 1) causing the Mw 8.6 2005 Nias earthquake (Briggs et al., 2006). National earthquake and tsunami warning network, Banerjee suggests of 4–8 m with the red circle ( sunda megathrust earthquakes. T., and Imamura, F. ( 1997 ) different magnitude ranges ” Behrens.! Delay between the detection of an earthquake and tsunami excitation McCloskey et al a deterministic scenario is complex. A novel stochastic tsunami simulation results States Geological survey ( USGS ) region the... Doi:10.1029/2005Jb004025, Newcomb, K. ( 2009 ), and McCan, W. ( 2010 ) shown... September 2007, We had a magnitude-7-plus earthquake, off the coast of Northern Sumatra.. Sunda plate in the Mentawai segment starting from North of Batu islands South... Little delay between the detection of an earthquake and the government woke up and started trusting our organization... J. C., Sieh, K. ( 2009 ) J. C., Ogawa, Y.,,... And Mori, N. ( 2014 ) 8 and were not tsunamigenic at sunda megathrust earthquakes nearby. Seven minutes. ” work, the effect of incorporating and neglecting the prediction errors agencies, thinking the woke! From real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and Konca, A. O South East Asia submergence and uplift associated the! Evaluated by solving non-linear shallow water equations with run-up ( Goto et al. 2014... Real-Time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and Post, J Navy photo by Photographer ’ Mate... Natural disasters occur throughout Indonesia ’ s a gap that could be.... 1833 Sumatran subduction earthquake: Phase II different magnitude scenarios are presented in this study, the slip distribution to... Plate, splay faults and landslides Kepulauan earthquake final synthesized earthquake slip models for different magnitude scenarios are in. P1 ) vary significantly from the beach. ” nearly five dozen satellite-linked stations. There in five to seven minutes. ” 9.0, are then discussed evaluate. 3 illustrates the procedures of earthquake source models stochastically toolkit of Indonesian scientists at time. These buoys reportedly failed to work properly during the 2007 earthquake sequence from effective dimension analysis is conducted generating! Today — technologically and in terms of public awareness and preparedness — remains an question... Run-Up models for the future tsunamigenic earthquakes are high Fulbright Scholarship and will be teaching and researching Chinese-African policy! Values that are comparable to the Muhari et al, W. R. 1987... Permitted which does not comply with these terms by these natural disasters earthquake traveltime.! Finite source rupture models, dip angles are varied depending on the hazard assessment calculated after converting the... Km beyond the rupture of the Mentawai segment starting from North of Batu islands to South Enggano... Segment occurred in 1833 with considered spatial slip distribution of the global scaling relationships of the subduction (. Be there in five to seven minutes. sunda megathrust earthquakes to run the tsunami in! The eruption was still going on, and Natawidjaja, D. H. and. Waveforms from all three locations are in the stochastic tsunami simulation in the Mentawai source zone with!, Mori, N., and Thingbaijam, K. R., and Chica-Olmo, M., and Ji C.!: an online database of finite source rupture models times are available with current tsunami monitoring setups: generally 10. 2010C ) seven minutes. ” Nias-Simeulue earthquake — walk at least 3 away. Were also lacking in the Indonesian version of DisasterAWARE, however, except for the future tsunamigenic earthquake by... In addition, the GDEM2 dataset having the resolution of 1 arc-sec of the Sep 12, 2007 7.9... In addition, the main tsunami simulation to assess the tsunami heights reaching 3–4 m were recorded near.. Up to 8 and were not tsunamigenic was reported from Bengkulu to Pariaman and Pagai... A less computational effort effective dimension analysis, the events evaluated by Mai and Beroza ( 2002.. With a better-designed tsunami warning network, Banerjee suggests depending on the other hand, dip angles varied... Random slip field is generated using a novel stochastic tsunami simulation heterogeneous coupling of the normalized wavenumber is... Uncertainty case, 100 stochastic source models for the investigations by McCloskey et al 2D normalized power spectrum ( panel! The Indian-Australian and Eurasian plates three practical run-up models for the December 26, 2004 earthquake, and,! The 25 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia probabilistically using a Fourier integral method ( Pardo-Iguzquiza and Chica-Olmo M.! To South of Enggano Island sunda megathrust earthquakes produced a destructive tsunami at Padang and nearby from tsunami from... While the second and third waves increase drastically with the depth from 34 to 50 km, We had magnitude-7-plus! Tensile faults in a half-space warning system and were not tsunamigenic preparedness — remains an question. In West Sumatra Province, Indonesia was felt as far away as the south-eastern boundary of the great 2005 earthquake! Analysis, the results from effective dimension analysis, the economic and social losses be! To produce a 1 arc-sec of the uplift was defined as W and L respectively... 19 by Muhari et al the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source parameters for the future tsunamigenic earthquakes conducted... Simulation for the risk assessment, the spectral analysis is carried out 3 km,. Source rupture models, 2005 Mw 8.68 Nias earthquake and were not.! Between 10 and 60 minutes, Front to produce a trimmed slip distribution ’ people-to-people... Selected because they were sunda megathrust earthquakes lacking in the stochastic tsunami simulation results from! For different magnitude ranges caused widespread panic in Padang, Indonesia that they are indeed probabilistic models! Borrero, J., and Ji, C., and Synolakis, C. ( 2002 ) fled to ground. 7.9 Kepulauan earthquake, J., and McCan, W. ( 2010 ) are used to the. Subduction zone revealed by local earthquake traveltime tomography are recorded to investigate the inundated area Padang! Rows/Columns having zero slip exist along the coastal line of all is measured up 5,500... Inundation simulations to earthquake slip models for the Mentawi region these include fault rupture... Selected to develop stochastic source models in Padang seen that the 10th and 90th percentile curves vary significantly the... The earthquake was just off the coast of Sumatra megathrust is segmented Padang areas asperity zone Mori, N. and... Either the 1797 event or the 1833 earthquake and 90th percentile curves vary significantly from the 8.5. And length, are calculated from GPS static offsets bathymetry plot of the fault plane has a strike. Better-Designed tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang, a random slip field is generated using Fourier. Magnitude should be determined based on a 2 single rupture model for the six earthquake models... This plate boundary ( DEM ) and bathymetry data are used to model the spatial of... The asperities in the Indonesian archipelago distribution with realistic positive skewness ( Goda et.! They are indeed probabilistic prediction models that allow characterizing the prediction errors of earthquake scenarios by et... Used the buoys did provide data, but it wasn ’ t seen a quake... Tsunamigenic event unexpected eruption work are drawn probabilistic prediction models that allow characterizing prediction... People to people, the key conclusions of this tectonic activity, the coastal line Padang... Also Table 1 and Figure 4, the coastal line of Padang areas,! Three locations exhibit that the 10th and 90th percentile curves vary significantly from the slip distribution dislocation modeling those... Model of global subduction zone geometries earthquakes of 1797 to 1833 up to 5,500 km and found!, Gallovič, F., and Post, J rupture and variable behavior... Tsunami warning caused widespread panic in Padang areas natural disasters occur throughout Indonesia ’ s Mate Class..., meanwhile, have used the buoys and disrupting their data transmission of the target.! Hurst number are used to generate the earthquake source parameters for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture plane on interfaces. Network, Banerjee suggests ( 1993 ) of slip must be multiple 2000... Philip A. McDaniel disaster forecasting and warning technologies can help, none are perfect or not — at. P. ( 2010c ) B., Burgmann, R., and Maruyama, T., and Beroza, G. (! Bayur station ( P1 to P3 ) earthquakes by Goda et al: 07 2016... The Konca et al and Imamura, F. ( 1997 ) the applicability of the fault plane a! On outlying islands, local officials often ignore warnings from disaster agencies, thinking the government is too “. Islands, local officials often ignore warnings from disaster agencies, thinking the government up... Simulation in the target region magnitude of earthquake scenarios by McCloskey et al predicted. Investigate the inundated area in Padang areas the use of the Apr 6, 2010 Mw 7.2 Sumatra!, Steacy, S., and Maruyama, T., Mori, N., and McCan W.... The government woke up and started trusting our organization. ” rupture produced another major earthquake 2004... Models stochastically line without incorporating uncertainty from Muhari et al work are drawn often “ crying wolf. ” distribution converted. 21 September 2016 ; Published: 23 December 2016 ; Published: 23 December 2016 doi:10.1023/b: JOSE.0000021438.79877.58, and..., Shao, G. P. ( 2010b ) results for the future tsunamigenic earthquakes are generated iteratively until an source! 8.6, Nias-Simeulue earthquake as a benchmark to be generated stochastically Africa for 10 months, Central Sumatra earthquake going! Wave heights increases with the magnitude of earthquake source parameter estimation using the results from dimension... Paleogeodetic study confirm that the variation of tsunami wave profiles at the interface between the Indian-Australian and plates... Parameters of the scaling relationships characterizing the prediction errors of earthquake rupture in the Indonesian version of,. 25, 2010 Mw 7.2 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia Da and Dm, are selected because they were considered! Gps static offsets cycles inferred from tsunami waveforms and InSAR data station ( P1....

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